House price growth 'still firm' | 02.11.2006

House price growth cooled slightly in October, the Nationwide has said, but the underlying trend “remains firm”. It found that UK house prices rose by an average 0.7% last month, compared with a 1.3% increase in September. However, the latest three-monthly trend showed prices up 2.6% compared with the previous quarter – the fastest pace since September 2004. The annual rate of increase dipped to 8% from 8.2% the month before. The average UK home now costs £169,623.

Slowing approvals?

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s group economist, said that the housing market was looking firm, with little sign that the recent interest rate had curbed demand. But she added that many fewer estate agents were reporting an increase new buyer enquiries and net sales in September.

“While the relationship between these and house purchase approvals is far from perfect, it could suggest that we will see some slowing in approvals in the next few months,” she said. Bank of England data earlier this week showed that mortgage approvals – an indicator of future demand – have risen to their highest level since February 2004.

However, future mortgage lending could be hit by next month’s widely expected rise in interest rates. Analysts predict the Bank of England will increase rates from 4.75% to 5% in November.

Registry survey

Meanwhile, a new monthly survey from the government’s Land Registry supported the view of a buoyant UK housing market. During the month of September – the Registry survey has a time lag, as it is based on completed sales – prices grew by 1.3% on average. This compares to 0.4% growth in the same month last year. Year-on-year average house prices are 6.3% higher.

New method

The new monthly Land Registry survey uses a unique methodology. For the purposes of the survey, the Registry only tracks properties that have been sold on more than one occasion since 2000.

According to the Registry by using repeat transactions, differences in the quality of the homes comprised in any monthly sample are reduced. This ensures an “apples to apples” comparison, the Registry added.